FEATURE REQUEST #604
Binary-probability bot engine (feature-combo table + Kelly + dynamic expiry) for clone bots
Original creator
@Soul4you
2
Score
+2
Upvotes
-0
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0
Comments
Implementation Progress
1
Submitted
2
Reviewing
3
Approved
4
Building
5
QA & Testing
6
Shipped!
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Description
User Soul4you (on /profile) maintains a fully-specified binary-options trading strategy in their AGENTS.MD and wants a clone bot (Bot4You) to actually RUN it. The current clone-bot strategy config is a TA rule engine (indicators + buy/sell boolean rules + SL/TP/size) and cannot represent the spec. Requested engine, per their spec:\n- 5-min OHLCV, dynamic weekly-filtered asset pool (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/BNB).\n- 11 binary feature flags evaluated at candle close: macd_bull, rsi_oversold, rsi_overbought, bb_low, bb_high, ema_bull, volume_surge, high_volatility (ATR>80th pct/100 bars), adx_strong (ADX>adx_threshold), session_eu, session_us.\n- Per-expiry-horizon probability tables (1/3/5/7 candles), key=11-bit combo, values occurrences+wins, exponential decay EMA alpha=0.01 (~100-trade half-life), P(up)=(wins+1)/(occurrences+2), unseen→global win rate last 200 for that horizon; persisted (SQLite).\n- Dynamic expiry by regime: ADX>30 & atr_pct>median→5-7 candles; ADX>=20→3; ADX<20→1.\n- Entry: payout-anchored breakeven=1/(1+payout), threshold=breakeven+safety_margin(0.02), no-trade zone; mandatory pre-entry filters ADX>adx_threshold and atr_pct>min; CALL/PUT by P(up) vs threshold.\n- Kelly sizing: clamp P to [0.5,0.7], f_full=(P*payout-(1-P))/payout, kelly_fraction 0.25, position_pct=min(f_use,0.03), min $10, max 2 concurrent, total binary risk <=15%.\n- Execute at next candle open, binary settlement.\nRelated gap: ET-16338 (rule engine can't reference ADX/atr_pct). This ticket is the full binary-probability engine, distinct from the TA rule engine. Interim: applied the TA-expressible momentum subset (EMA/MACD/RSI, 3% size, 2 max) to Bot4You.
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